Trending toward urban living

Many scoff at the idea people would want to abandon suburban life for a more urban setting, but researchers are noticing a trend in just that direction. If these forecasts are true, what will the ramifications be for all those low-density developments on the fringe of town? Here’s an article from Atlantic Monthly that should give city planners and developers something to think about:

Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, has looked carefully at trends in American demographics, construction, house prices, and consumer preferences. In 2006, using recent consumer research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing: Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent of the large-lot homes in existence today.

For 60 years, Americans have pushed steadily into the suburbs, transforming the landscape and (until recently) leaving cities behind. But today the pendulum is swinging back toward urban living, and there are many reasons to believe this swing will continue. As it does, many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s—slums characterized by poverty, crime, and decay.

Hat tip: Chris Setti

In brief

Just a few brief comments on things from when I was gone:

  • It looks like somebody got a new theme for his blog while I was gone over the weekend. Unlike just about every other theme change Billy has gone through, I actually like the look and feel of this one … which means it will inevitably change sometime in the next week and a half.
  • The day I left, there was a shooting at Northern Illinois University. Maybe you heard about it. The shooter, Steven Kazmierczak, did not fit the profile of the type of person who would go on a rampage, except for one thing: he did go off his SSRI medication (Prozac, in this case) just a few weeks before the incident. While I see a trend, others don’t, but maybe this year’s coming lawsuits will shed more light on the issue.
  • District 150 is looking into charter schools as if they’ve never heard of the concept before. But the fact is that the very first charter school in Illinois opened in August 1996 in Peoria. It was called Peoria Alternative Charter School and was located at 919 NE Jefferson St., in the old Greeley School building. It was a school which expelled and other troubled students could attend. According to a June 3, 1999, Journal Star article, “The charter school was managed by Youth Farm, which had Fred McAfree serve as the manager/principal.” It dissolved in 1999 after its three-year charter was allowed to lapse and it became a “Regional Safe School.” The type of charter school being considered now is different — instead of being a school for troubled students, Superintendent Ken Hinton has indicated that “a proposed math, science and technology academy could be a potential charter school candidate.”
  • The Kellar Branch is still in the news — the new Peoria-Peoria Heights committee is looking at hiring a consulting firm to determine the feasibility of a side-by-side rail-trail solution. The results need to be back by April 1. I’m not going to prejudge the outcome; ever the optimist, I still hope a win-win option will emerge.
  • The Journal Star ran an article on anonymous commenting on blogs and newspaper sites, along with a companion article that reassures us that venomous anonymous bloggers are only acting human. The answer is simple — it’s up to the owner of the site, whether that’s a blog owner or a newspaper, to monitor the comments and maintain a minimum level of civil discourse. That’s in fact what reputable blogs and newspapers already do. Problem solved.
  • Joan Krupa is running as a Republican for the 92nd Legislative District seat being vacated by Rep. Aaron Schock. I wish her luck. I sure hope she’s been convicted of shoplifting at some point in her life — it appears that increases your chances of winning these days. Speaking of which, here are two more potential Democratic candidates for the state legislature.
  • District 150 decided Monday night to let teachers and principals, not board members, decide grading appeals. Good. Although it doesn’t change the outcome of the situation that sparked this controversy, at least it will keep it from happening again. It also vindicates the teachers and administrators.

Durbin and the 40-year-old reform proposal

I heard on WCBU this morning (and read here in the Journal Star) that Dick Durbin was here, touting legislation that would help people who are facing foreclosure on their homes. It’s cleverly titled The Helping Families Save Their Homes Act.

It’s not mentioned in the article in the paper, but on the radio news, they had a sound bite of Durbin explaining one of the “reforms” he thinks is needed. He said there needed to be a cover sheet whenever you take out a mortgage that clearly identifies the amount you’re borrowing, the interest rate, your payment amount, and other critical pieces of info.

I’ve got news for Mr. Durbin: we already have that “cover sheet.” It’s called a “Truth in Lending” form, and it’s been a federal requirement since the passage of the Truth in Lending Act (TILA) of 1968. That “cover sheet” has been around for 40 years. I’ve purchased two houses in my lifetime (1994 and 2005), and both times I received this form that showed in a very easy-to-read way how much I was borrowing, what the interest rate was, how many payments I was going to have to make and how much each payment was, and how much money I was going to be paying back to the financial institution in total.

Perhaps Durbin meant that his bill will step up enforcement of TILA; some lawsuits have already been filed over violations of the Act. But the way it came across on the radio was that there was currently no requirement to disclose these basic pieces of information to borrowers, but that Durbin’s proposed legislation was going to correct that oversight.

I’m back

My train was late getting into Chicago on Sunday — so late that I missed the last train of the day headed back to Bloomington. So I got to stay overnight in the Windy City at Amtrak’s expense.

Some may scoff, but I still think it’s the best way to travel. Yes, it needs to be improved, but it sure beat driving, even with the delays. I was sitting in the dining car, relaxing comfortably, eating salmon and a baked potato while looking out the window, watching motorists slip and slide down the road in near-blizzard-like conditions while we traveled through Wisconsin.

I was happy to see we didn’t get hit with a blizzard here in Peoria. It made it easy to drive home from Bloomington on Monday. Hope you all had a wonderful weekend.

WSJ: Railroads generate development

Here’s an article from the Wall Street Journal I hope hasn’t escaped the notice of the Journal Star, Junction Ventures, the Sierra Club, and Maloof Realty (not to mention the City of Peoria and Village of Peoria Heights):

Railroads are generating development in the same way they spawned towns and industrial sites over a century ago. Warehouse complexes are popping up next to new rail yards designed to load and unload trains carrying containerized goods. Major distribution operations have opened or are planned in places like Elwood, Ill., Kansas City, Mo., and Columbus, Ohio.

The social consequences are evident in developments like AllianceTexas. In the late 1980s, Hillwood Development Co., founded by Ross Perot Jr., son of the former presidential candidate, built a cargo airport outside Fort Worth, thinking that would be the best way to attract companies to 17,000 acres of land north of the city. As an afterthought, the company says, it made room for a rail yard.

A decade later, it’s the rail yard that has attracted huge warehouses, for companies such as J.C. Penney Co. and Bridgestone Corp. These and others get container loads of jeans, electronics, tires and such from Southern California ports. “I never would have thought having a rail hub in the middle of our development would have attracted so much interest,” says Thomas Harris, a Hillwood senior vice president.

The development, which employs 27,000, has spawned a nearby minicity of shopping centers, a golf course, a racetrack and 6,200 houses. More than 300 of the homes are high-priced models in gated communities.

Railroads have found friends among environmentalists, who see moving freight by train rather than truck as a way to reduce fuel burning and emissions.

Isn’t that interesting? A rail hub in the middle of the development. Attracted huge warehouses. Employs 27,000. Spurred retail and residential development. Not just cheap residential development either — “high-priced models in gated communities.” Helps the environment by reducing emissions. Too bad we don’t have something like that.

Oh, wait….

Train crossing Prospect on Kellar - photo by Ed Sanders

Farewell, Red Zin

I hate it when local restaurants close. The Journal Star article implies that Red Zin is folding because of competition with all the new restaurants in East Peoria. I’m not convinced of that.

It might be their prices or the quality of their food or the consistency of their service. For example, the last time my wife and I visited Red Zin, we were served baked potatoes that were stone cold. Not lukewarm. Not even room temperature. Cold. At the prices they were charging, it didn’t motivate us to visit again anytime soon.

Maybe that was just a bad night. Or maybe there were a lot of bad nights, and customers got turned off. Who knows? One thing’s for sure, they weren’t losing business because people are scared off by the HRA tax. You might choose the East Peoria Steak n’ Shake over a Peoria Steak n’ Shake if you’re about the same distance from both when you decide to go. But if Red Zin is among your options for dinner, the tax rate is not likely to be high on your list of concerns.

So what’s next for this location?

I say, bring back The Grill. Or, better yet, have a ground-level restaurant that’s like a sports bar and restaurant where people can hang out before/after Rivermen and Bradley games whether they’re with their buddies or with their family, and put the highfalutin upscale restaurant at the top of the twin towers where diners can get an aerial view of the city while they eat. I’ve never quite understood why Peoria puts all its fine dining establishments in the basements of its downtown buildings.

Little-known law of the universe: Civic Center lots must charge more than other lots

If anyone can explain this to me, I’d appreciate it:

If nearby city-owned garage fees are hiked $1 per vehicle for concerts, hockey and basketball games next year, the Peoria Civic Center then might have to increase its parking costs. … “We’re usually 50 cents ahead of (the garage fees) . . . we’ll have to look at it,” [Civic Center General Manager Debbie] Ritschel said. “Usually people are willing to pay more when you are closer.”

Huh? Why the moral imperative that the Civic Center lot must cost more than city parking garages? And what’s Ritschel’s definition of “closer”? I would contend that the city garage across Jefferson is just as close as the Civic Center lot across Monroe. How curious.

Digital TV coverage may be more limited than thought

Rabbit Ears AntennaFor those who still use rabbit ears to get their TV signals, here’s a worrisome press release from the market-research firm Centris. Basically, it says that to really get a good signal, you need a rooftop antenna and be within 35 miles of the transmitter. If you’re farther away, or if you’re using rabbit ears, you may be left in the dark after the digital conversion.

I heard about it first through Broadcast Engineering. You can read their synopsis here.

NEW YORK, New York (February 12, 2008) – New proprietary research released today by Centris (www.centris.com), a leading market research firm, illuminates a major discrepancy in digital TV broadcast coverage that is critical to the upcoming DTV transition on February 17, 2009. The study, of U.S. television households reveals that there are serious “gaps” in digital TV signal coverage across the country. Coverage that millions of households will rely upon once analog signals are switched off exactly one year from now. That’s why I recommend looking in to the best iptv provider that way you can watch your favorite shows and movies without interuption. “We predict that digital TV signal coverage will be more limited than currently anticipated. An issue that, until now, has been completely overlooked by the FCC and governing bodies, and could have serious – and costly – implications for millions of consumers” says David Klein, Executive Vice President of Centris.

There are more than 40 million households currently receiving over-the-air analog signals in the U.S., according to Centris. These reflect a combined total of as many as 117 million sets that are unconnected from cable or satellite video networks – a figure that far exceeds any previous projections on the number of people who will be affected by the national switch from analog to digital broadcasting. With less than one year – and counting – until the DTV transition takes places, the potential gaps in digital coverage present a huge problem for the TV industry, and an equally large opportunity for cable, satellite and telecom video service providers as well as for manufacturers and distributors of “smart” television antennas. Similar problems have emerged in the digital transition taking place in the UK, where it is recognized that problems with digital coverage will require the use of more sophisticated antennas.

THE GLITCH: EXPLAINED

Over-the-air (OTA) consumers are currently being educated on three available options. Two of the three options – acquiring new digital TV sets and purchasing government subsidized digital-analog converter boxes – are entirely dependent upon receiving digital TV signals through an antenna. Without adequate broadcast signal coverage or a sufficiently sensitive roof-top antenna, Centris forecasts, these options will simply not work. For consumers living in problem areas where broadcast gaps exist, installing a sophisticated roof-top antenna is a possible option but signing up for a cable, satellite or telecom video provider is the only guarantee that their TV sets will continue to work. This is not what the Federal Government claims.

“Consumers are being urged to purchase equipment that may or may not work when they bring it home – never before has such an important transition been conducted on a trial and error basis. The reality is, if consumers want guaranteed ‘free’ TV, they will have to pay for it,” says Klein.

DISCOVERING THE GAPS

Centris examined several large TV markets and exercised models of coverage to determine how many broadcast stations could be received in zip codes within 5 mile intervals of the TV towers in a 60-75 mile radius corresponding to the FCC-identified service contours. Alarmingly, the results showed that there was little continuous coverage beyond 35 miles. The explanation lies in the fact that the antennaweb model used in the Centris study takes into account outdoor receiving antenna sensitivity and multipath interference. Certain households – for example: those that are not elevated; are surrounded by trees; or have set-top antennas instead of roof-top antennas; among other factors – are at higher risk of having limited or no signal coverage. Centris surveys reveal that 75% or more of over-the-air households have only set-top antennas.

“These are very real factors, that have until now not been accounted for. The effect will have extensive ramifications, not only among consumers, but also electronics retailers and manufacturers who can expect an influx of costly returns when it is realized that the converter boxes and new digital TV’s don’t work,” says Barry Goodstadt, Senior Vice President of Centris. “In addition, with so many sets potentially at risk of going dark, network, local and public television, advertisers and agencies will likely be adversely affected.”

THE COUNTDOWN

The hidden gaps in digital TV coverage will undoubtedly magnify existing levels of confusion in the marketplace. According to Centris November, 2007 survey results, 45% had no idea that the DTV transition was taking place; and among those who are aware of the transition, only 56% could correctly state when the analog transmission is scheduled to stop. With the one year-out countdown upon us, it is critical that the gaps in digital coverage are included in national dialogue on the DTV transition.