The date is November 21, 1964. The voters are going to the polls to decide whether Peoria should annex Richwoods Township. The voters approve annexation by a slim margin: only 336 votes.

But let’s do a little thought experiment, just for fun. Suppose that vote had gone the other way. Suppose the annexation vote had lost by 336 votes. What would things look like today? What would be different? What would be the same?

Here’s some further background info. From a 1979 article in Illinois Issues:

The population of “old” Peoria slipped from 106,000 in 1960 to less than 100,000 in 1970, but the addition of Richwoods added some 25,000 new residents to its population. Present city officials believe that the tax revenues collected from the Richwoods section have been vital to the city in maintaining its services in the older parts of Peoria.

The annexation has not been without cost to the city. Because Richwoods, like so many fringe areas around Illinois cities, had been developed according to the relatively lax zoning, construction and planning standards of county government, resulting deficiencies became Peoria’s responsibility to remedy. Fortunately, a preannexation agreement with Peoria County spared the city from having to remedy all the problems at once. As Peoria’s Mayor Richard E. Carver complained recently: “Our city is, even today, spending millions of dollars developing the basic road network which would normally have been constructed as the area developed had there been an adequate degree of planning and control present at that time.”

And also, here are a couple of charts from an undated (but apparently late-1990s) report on Peoria population growth (click on the thumbnails below to view larger image):

On the population chart, you’ll notice that population declined from 1970 to 1990. Census figures from 2000 (not included on the chart) show the population was 112,936 — a further decline. There have been special censuses conducted since 2000 that would indicate population is rising, but since they only look at population growth in one section of the city, they’re not really comparable to the decennial censuses.

One argument is that population migration would not have been any different if the annexation referendum had failed. The 15-square-mile Peoria would have suffered from the population loss, while Richwoods Township would have been a boomtown, acquiring all the wealth that used to belong to Peoria. The two municipalities would look identical to the way they look today (booming growth to the north, destitute of commerce to the south).

The other argument is that Peoria and Richwoods would have been in competition for residents and businesses, and thus would have both been stronger as a result. Without greenfield development sites, Peoria would have had to invest its money revitalizing or keeping vital its east bluff, west bluff, and south side neighborhoods, attracting developers and industry to the core of the city, etc. It would have incentivized people and businesses to stay in the city instead of acquiescing to the perceived inevitability of northward migration. As a result, Richwoods would still be a boomtown, but Peoria would not be in as bad of condition as it is today (infrastructure, commerce).

Which scenario do you buy? Or do you have a completely different scenario you think would have played out?