Billy Dennis admits he’s optimistic about Colleen Callahan’s chances of winning the 18th Congressional District seat in the U. S. House of Representatives this November:
Think about it: More than 700 people crowded into a basement of a tiny building on the outskirts of Kickapoo, Ill., to show their support for a woman whom all the experts say cannot win…. Laugh at my optimism if you must, but this has the makings of a people power movement, right here in the River City…. Election day is three months and two weeks away. A lot can happen in that time.
On the other hand, Monday’s Word on the Street (written this week entirely by Karen McDonald) offers a not-so-rosy picture of Callahan’s campaign:
Former Journal Star assignment editor Terry Towery was hired as Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan’s press secretary, but now her news releases list him as campaign manager…. A changing of the guard so close to an election (it’s in November) is not common. In fact, it’s practically unheard of unless the campaign is in trouble….
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Callahan to its list of 20 “emerging races” where candidates have generated excitement in their districts and are being watched…. But DCCC still doesn’t appear to be terribly interested.
DCCC recently…targeted three House seats with significant television ad buys at more than $1 million each…. The 18th Congressional District was not one of them.
Love him or hate him, Schock is going to win this election. Callahan is not a strong enough candidate to overcome the Schock juggernaut of money, gerrymandering, and demonstrably superior campaign strategy. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I’m no fan of Aaron Schock, but if the kid can seriously suggest selling nukes to Taiwan and skate to a majority win in a three-way race, might as well start printing up stationery…. unless the Democrats put up a strong contender with a lot of national backing. Callahan is not that contender.
I have no beef with Karen McDonald’s reporting. But she’s reporting here on the horse race. I’m reporting/commenting the candidates.
In sports, there’s a reason they actually play the games and don’t declare the victor simply by looking at the stats. There’s a reason they hold elections.
Upsets are possible.
And three months remain until the election.
I was about to suggest to Billy that he change his bongwater, but he does make a valid point- anything can happen.
The DCCC needs to get its crap together.
McDonald made an interesting point. The DCCC has ungodly amounts of money, at least $53 million at last check. They cut loose on more than a Million each to Foster, Halvorson and Seals and nothing for Colleen? To be fair, perhaps they know that air time will be easier to buy in the 18th than in the Chicago media market so they could wait, but if you look at all of the races which are contested accross the country, there are only 5 that aren’t on one of their “races to watch” lists. Her turnout was terrific and her spinmeistering has been great. But, barring a misstep by Schock, Colleen will have a hard time breaking through the deluge of positive image building campaign pieces which I can only assume will be coming thanks to the money generated by the president’s visit. Two other things the visit did. It put him on the public stage with the President, which, just like Obama’s visit, works to erase the impression that he isn’t ready. LOTS of free media coverage. Second, an event like that takes dozens of volunteers which are now galvanized and energized. Which of the volunteers will not want to be part of the next schock event, and now they have experience working together on a higly choreographed event. Add in the money and even the most cynical (Billy D.) would have to acknowledge that the funder had far more benefits than drawbacks.
I guess this is what happened when we went from a REPUBLIC to a DEMOCRACY. Schock IS counting on the gullibility of ‘the masses.’
Jordan,
If you are reading this…………
As far as our local Republican elite, leaning to the ‘left’ or ‘right’ has little to do with their ‘party’ loyalty; at least in Peoria. In the end, we all know which candidate they support.
The question is…….WHY?
Hey Voice,
When a party is so dominant, ideological views tend to be diverse among its members.
I normally side more with you than Billy, but in this case I side with Billy. Remember that Aaron himself won with a write in campaign when he ran for school board… that made him the underdog in that race. Who says Colleen can’t win as the underdog? Yeah, I admit that Aaron’s got a better chance and more financial backing, but don’t write Colleen off just yet.
I will not be disappointed if you and Billy get to say “I told you so” in November. But I don’t see it happening. The school board vote is not really comparable, since that race was limited to a small portion of the city and not during a general election. Larger area, bigger turnout, gerrymandering… If he loses, it will be an upset that will keep political scientists busy for months trying to explain. Not that that’s a bad thing…. 🙂
I am siding with Billy on this one. Not everyone is as mystified by Mr. Schock as Karen McDonald is in her reporting. You have to count votes, not money. There are also 17 other counties besides Peoria/Tazwell and Woodford where Schock I hear is not so popular.
I don’t know if Colleen can win but I will tell you that counties other than Peoria & Tazewell are all rural and her name recognition is drastically higher than Schock’s outside of Peoria area. There will be a lot of rural votes for Colleen that has traditionally voted Republican. I don’t know if it is enough to overcome the money and large population of the Peoria area but it will be interesting.
My understanding is that the rural/farm vote is not a “lock” for Ms. Callahan.
Hey Jordan,
I understand your point, but………….
what is your point? I am not talking about Rep or Dem party on a national level-or even state level. The monied-elite in Peoria stick together despite minor ‘ideological’ differences.
As KCDAD [the social-commie] asked, what does Schock really need a million dollar warchest for? Like I said, Peoria is in the RED [Dist 150,economic problems, etc]. ALL of the monied-elite in Peoria are pushing for the Regional Museum – despite the fact that a new tax is looming on the horizen, yet people are donating money to Schock’s campaign as if THIS guy actually had the answers to Peoria’s problems. What gives?
Put Colleen Callahan in a tank with a helmet on and she’s another Michael Dukakis.
Last-
I understand the nature of the beast, i.e. politics.
Do any of you really believe that a guy as ambitious as Schock REALLY has the best interest of the 18th Dist in mind?
Just asking.
To the Colleen Callahan Supporters:
I can tell you with first hand knowledge there is turmoil in the Schock campaign. He has managed to, and please excuse my crassness, “piss off” some of his most loyal supporters and contributors. His modus operandi is to use people and cast them aside. He demonstrates immaturity socially and if you want a first hand view check out the Peoria Country Club pool on a Sunday afternoon- it is quite the sight….
And believe me; Schock is worried about the democratic machine. Schock has said himself he does not have enough name recognition out side of Peoria. That is why is has been pushing so hard for big fund raisers. He knows he needs the media saturation.
If Colleen wants to win- she should inform Emil Jones that Schock is concerned about Jones’s ability to rally the democratic troops. Colleen could be more aggressive in attracting the republicans that consider Schock to be too young, too inexperienced, and too ambitious to be effective in Washington. Never mind the fact that he has not done much for Illinois and when he left District 150 they were in (and still are) is a state of shambles. Callahan needs to challenge Schock’s mantra of:
“…he has done much and will do more…”
That slogan is such a mountain of you know what. If John Kerry’s symbol was the flip flop Schock’s should be the rubber boot- if you get my drift.
Leave it to a liberal to define “ambition” as a bad thing.
Anon,
Don’t be an idiot. Ambition is fine so long as it is not at the cost of the people you/he represents.
And how is ambition good for a politician… have you read Julius Caesar, by some guy named Shakespeare?
I’ll weigh in if someone will define the argument.
Are we arguing CAN Callahan win or SHOULD she win.
I will ague that, unless there is an incredibly major stumble by Schock, Callahan cannot and will not win.
Why?
Schock has weaknesses but Callahan does not have the resources (money) to exploit those weaknesses.
Yes, as a conservative I agree with New Voice.
You know that in all of the news coverage of the event, I never heard the one question I was asking in my head when the president stepped off Air Force One. Why was EP Mayor Dave Mingus and the mayor of Eureka (so obscure I already forgot his name again) at the foot of the plane welcoming the President to the Peoria area and some of the more notable area mayors like Ardis and others were not there, or maybe not invited…
I could be wrong but I believe Mingus and John Doe from Eureka were both early Schock supporters. So it looks like the grudges and favoritism have already begun to blossom. Can’t wait for the rest of the Steve Shearer, I mean Schock congressional career…
Anon e. Mouse, there is soooo much more to it than that!
New Voice, way to go on the name calling.. really shores up your argument! 😉
George (the original, not Jacob),
What do you mean by “He demonstrates immaturity socially and if you want a first hand view check out the Peoria Country Club pool on a Sunday afternoon- it is quite the sight….”
Pool… Sunday afternoon… Aaron Schock… is it suitable for public discussion?
Schock is ambitious, which is fine, but what has he done for the 92nd? Really? The school district has gone downhill since he left. What is he known for other than being charming and handsome, being a wonderkind of some kind which is all about his winning elections, but what else? I have yet to have anyone tell me, seriously. Where’s the substance behind that handsome face?
The few times I have been in Schock’s presence, he’s been pretty aloof and not at all charming. Granted one of them was when 4 local gay rights activists (including myself) met with him (and David Leitch) about the Equal Marriage Illinois amendment – granting civil unions to gay couples, among other things. Aaron spoke very little. Dave Leitch was far more talkative and personable in that meeting – and that’s saying something.
The other time was more recent, when Schock was at the March For Babies for the March of Dimes, at the Riverplex in April, I think. Aside from when he was speaking on the podium, he stuck with the two people who appeared to be there with him. He didn’t “work the crowd” at all or seem to take the time to talk to any of the mothers and children there. Why? I don’t know. But it looked to me that he was staying with his people in the way that high schoolers will only hang with those they know in a crowd, and avoid all others.
Colleen Callahan has what it takes to represent the 18th – I think most of us here agree to that. Intelligence, experience and the ability to work with others. The fish fry was huge – 700 people or so. I was there late, and the crowds didn’t stop even as we were leaving at 7:30. There was still a line. Her name recognition is definitely higher OUTSIDE of Peoria – which is a really large area.
I’d like to see Callahan and Schock in televised debates starting in August – the earlier the better for Callahan IMHO. People can see her talent for themselves.
Billy’s got it – anything can happen. And there are some really dedicated folks helping Callahan (for free, full disclosure, that includes me). So while money certainly helps, you have to have people behind you too or all the money in the world gets you maybe 49% of the vote.
cgiselle12,
I don’t think that Callahan has what it takes to represent the 18th but considering the other option she’s at least competitive on that level.
The bit about her name recognition is questionable. Yes in the farm communities in the immediate outlying areas she has some name ID. However that is the same part of the district Schock has got a fair bit of attention in. In the south east and west portions of the district she is as unknown if not more so than Schock.
But like you said, anything can happen. Hopefully Schock is required to drop out of the race and one of his primary opponents runs in his place or at the very least he gets rid of his campaign manager. I’d be able to vote for him and sleep at night if that happened.
Diane, were you referring to “ambitious” as NVs name calling? ;^)
No, the idiot part. 😉
The Mayor of Peoria was not asked by Schock to be in the welcoming party of the President-how is that for arrogance? Ardis had said publicly he wasn’t buying a ticket and Schock said there were to be no freebies. The kid may be a little too big for his pants.
Wacko, you said what I think 100%. Up til this race, I’ve respected & admired Aaron’s ambitions… but running for this race when he’s still so inexperienced in the state house just doesn’t sit well with me. The fact that I’m also a democrat (or the son of a farmer who watched/listened to Colleen Callahan for most of the 19 years I lived at the farm) have nothing to do with my feelings on Aaron. I’m his age, so I’m not some person old enough to be his parent complaining. I just think he’s gotten too big for his britches – as you said – and he needs to earn the trust of the 18th district as Ray Lahood has.
11Bravo,
Your wrong about the name recognition just being around Peoria. She is well known throughout central Illinois. She is very well known in most farm communities.
The wild card in this race is Obama. He will bring out a number of voters that have really not been involved in the process before… and they likely will vote Democratic. That’s why War Criminal Bush was here, trying to build up an Aaron Baby war chest that, not that many months ago, would appear to not really be needed.
I think it’s possible that Colleen will win in a very close election. Heck, that unknown guy usually got 30-35% of the vote, just for running against Uncle Ray. There’s not a whole lot of ground to be made up there… perhaps just 16% of the vote. She might be able to do that.
Stranger things have happened.
Like Billy actually finding a server that works for more than a quarter hour.
A year and a half ago Mayor Ardis greeted the President at the airport and rode in his limo with Congressman Ray LaHood.
Shouldn’t that opportunity be spread around on the second visit?
Schock also personally asked Darin LaHood to be one of the few at the airport to greet the President. Darin rode in the limo this time with Bush and Schock. That’s pretty far from “grudges.”
Diane,
I would think after the razzing you received for spending $$$$$$ on the Schock hootenanny, you would be the last one to start preaching! And to think I even stuck up for you [sort of]!
Besides….I certainly did NOT appreciate the way Anon referred to me as a “liberal!”
Now, I am afraid I must call YOU a big wienie.
Ouch, NV, that REALLY hurt! 😉
New Voice? … Liberal? Oh puh-leese. You ought to see his military record and hair cut. I keep waiting for him to start talking about the train schedules…