Category Archives: Census 2010

Census 2010, City Council, City of Peoria, Redistricting

City redistricting maps released

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City staff has created nine options for new Peoria City Council districts. You can see all the proposed maps in the Redistricting Committee June 21 meeting packet from the City’s website. I’ve also put a copy of the maps on my site here:

6-21-2011 Redistricting Maps

Several different scenarios are included: columnar districts (north to south), layered districts (east to west), drawn-out-from-center districts, and districts expanded from current boundaries (there are several of these). All of them have one thing in common: the fifth district gets smaller and the other four districts get bigger.

There’s also an interesting memo from Randy Ray at the end of the packet that details what the process would be for changing the number of districts and council members, and eliminating cumulative voting for at-large council members. The City’s current system of government (five at-large council members elected by cumulative voting plus five district council members) was established as the result of a civil rights lawsuit in the 1980s, so any change to this system would have to be approved by the federal court that decided that case. In addition, state law requires that changes to the system of government be approved by the voters via referendum. So the process would be this: A public referendum would have to be drafted and approved first by the federal court and then the voters. In order to have enough time to comply with redistricting requirements, the decision would have to be made this year (2011) on whether they wanted to try to make these changes. It will be interesting to hear the discussion on this possibility at the next meeting.

The next meeting of the redistricting committee is Tuesday, June 21, at 5:30 p.m. in Council Chambers.

Census 2010, City Council, City of Peoria, Redistricting

Mayor to appoint redistricting committee

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The boundaries of the five City Council districts will have to change due to population shifts within the City. It’s a process called redistricting, and Mayor Ardis wants to employ a more “inclusive” method than the one used in 2001. The request from the mayor is on next Tuesday’s council agenda:

I am requesting the Council to concur with my recommendation to appoint a Redistricting Committee comprised of the District Council Members, chaired by Council Member Bill Spears. The Committee will be charged with a public process of drafting changes to the Council Districts and making a recommendation to the City Council regarding those changes.

Note that Redistricting Committees, comprised of District Council Members, were used in 1981 and 1991. I think the public process will be more inclusive than our internal process used in 2001.

The district council members are Clyde Gulley (Dist. 1), Barbara Van Auken (Dist. 2), Tim Riggenbach (Dist. 3), Bill Spears (Dist. 4), and Dan Irving (Dist. 5).

The 2010 Census shows the City’s population grew to 115,007 overall, but that growth was not evenly distributed throughout the City. Thus, the boundaries have to be redrawn such that each district includes approximately 23,001 residents (one-fifth of the total population). Here’s a chart that was provided in the council communication showing how many residents are currently in each council district, and how many need to be added or removed to reach the target number:

Council
District		 2010 District
Population		 Target Change
1 20379 23001 2622
2 20615 23001 2386
3 21305 23001 1696
4 21381 23001 1620
5 30624 23001 -7623

The new boundaries also have to meet federal standards for minority representation, and meet the requirements of the State of Illinois’ municipal code, which says that each district shall be “nearly equal in population,” “of as compact and contiguous territory as practicable,” and be created so that “no precinct shall be divided between 2 or more [districts].”

State law also requires that the redistricting process be completed “not less than 30 days before the first day set by the general election law for the filing of candidate petitions for the next succeeding election for city officers.” That means it would have be complete by October of 2012, but it usually gets done sooner so the Election Commission has time to redraw the precinct boundaries.

Census 2010, City of Peoria

A picture of Peoria’s shifting population

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From the City’s Planning and Growth Department, here are a couple of pictures that show the migration of Peoria’s population from the older neighborhoods to the south into the newer neighborhoods to the north. Areas in red and orange saw a decline in population, whereas areas in yellow and green saw an increase. As you look at these, take particular note of how large the area is that is losing population versus the area that is gaining population. Here’s a map that shows the change just over the past ten years:

And here’s what the change looks like over the past forty years:

Here are some other revealing statistics:

Year Population Area
1970 126,963 40 mi.2
2010 115,007 49.84 mi.2

That means that, over the past 40 years, there has been a 9.42% drop in population, and a 24.6% increase in land area that has been annexed into the City. In other words, our city has gotten physically bigger, but the burden of providing city services to all that land is falling on fewer taxpayers.

Now, to be fair, we had large population losses from 1970 to 2000, but have seen a slight population gain between 2000 and 2010. So let’s compare just the changes in the past ten years. Population increased from 112,936 to 115,007, or 1.83%, yet land area grew from 44 to 49.84 square miles, or 13.27%. If it takes over 13% growth in land to net a little under 2% growth in population, I would submit that we cannot sustain such a policy.

These charts illustrate that we have to find ways to get people moving back into our heritage neighborhoods. Northern growth alone is demonstrably insufficient to pull the city out of its fiscal crisis.

Census 2010, City of Peoria

Peoria’s population: up or down?

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In a 2008 InterBusiness Issues article, Mayor Jim Ardis announced:

Our growth strategies are working—and they’re paying for themselves too. A special census was recently completed, and the results were better than expected. The city added 1,453 dwelling units and an additional 3,256 citizens in select areas of the city. Combined with the total from our last special census in 2004, the city has added 3,653 additional dwelling units and 8,455 citizens since the 2000 census. That’s great news!

Peoria’s population as of the 2000 Census was 112,936. If we added 8,455 citizens by 2007, as the Mayor stated, then our new population as of 2007 would have been 121,391. But today, I received a press release from the City stating, in part, this:

According to 2010 Census data, the City of Peoria has a population of 115,007, an increase of 1.8 percent over the 112,936 counted during the 2000 Census. Census data are very important in determining the allocation of Federal and State funds to the City of Peoria, proper representation in Voting Districts, and as an important source of strategic planning data. Council Member Ryan Spain said, “After a population decline since 1970, this is a positive sign for the City of Peoria as population has begun trending upward.”

Trending upward? But we had 121,391 in 2007, and now we only have 115,007! Isn’t that trending downward? Which is it? Did the population go up or down?

To answer that question, we need to understand how a special census is conducted. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, “A Special Census is an actual enumeration of housing and group quarters of a specific area, conducted on a specified date. Special Census counts will include new housing and population that came into the area after Census 2000.” In other words, since 2000, Peoria has annexed more land and new subdivisions have been created. The City wanted to get credit for all the (supposedly) new people that had moved into Peoria since the 2000 Census, so they counted just those new areas to see how many people were living in there — a special census, conducted in a selected area on a specific date. In 2007, for example, the “selected areas” of the Special Census count “included the subdivisions of Northtrail Meadows, Rollingbrook, Timberbrook, Prairie Lakes Apartments, Sommer Place, and Chadwick Estates to name a few,” according to a Jan. 30, 2008, press release.

The presumption was that all of these residents were new to Peoria and represented population growth to the City as a whole. In reality, they showed growth in only the area(s) of the City counted. They didn’t show whether there was growth or decline in other areas of the City. Now we know that, while the special census count areas increased in population by 8,455 citizens, the City’s overall growth was only 2,071. This implies that 6,384 citizens — the difference between the 2010 total census increase and the 2004/2007 combined special census increase — merely shifted from one part of Peoria to the special census count areas.

Bottom line: the population did go up 1.8% since 2000, but more significantly, the population shifted to the north. Our growth cells are working, but it unfortunately appears they’re drawing more migrants from other parts of Peoria than new people from outside of Peoria.

In the short run, though, there’s an even bigger concern, and that’s this: the City of Peoria has been receiving state-shared revenue funding based on the 121,391 figure from the 2004/2007 special census additions. Thus, from a revenue-sharing standpoint, our population dropped, and we will be getting less revenue from the State as a result — at a time when we can least afford to lose any money.

“The City of Peoria will hold a news conference on February 18, 2011 at 10:00 a.m., in Room 400 … to discuss the data released by the Census Bureau,” Alma Brown announced today. Despite the hopeful tone of today’s press release, the City is going to have to face some tough questions about population shift and revenue loss at Friday’s press conference.

Census 2010, City of Peoria, City of Washington

Washington sees tremendous population growth; east side of river booming

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The City of Washington (Illinois) outpaced the City of Peoria in population growth over the last decade not just in percentages, but in real numbers.

According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, Washington has grown by 3,451 residents (from 10,841 to 14,292) between 2000 and 2009*, an increase of 31.83%. Peoria increased by 2,584 residents (from 112,936 to 115,520) — an increase of 2.29% — over the same period.

On a percentage basis, the largest population growth near Peoria is in Germantown Hills. The village grew by 1,121 residents (from 2,111 to 3,232) — a whopping 53.1%.

Other surrounding communities that saw population growth include Morton, Metamora, Eureka, East Peoria, and Dunlap. Several towns and villages lost population, including Bartonville, West Peoria, Pekin, Peoria Heights, and Canton. West Peoria and Peoria Heights lost the most residents percentage-wise in the immediate area: -5.63% and -5.38%, respectively.

Here’s a breakdown of population changes in several communities of interest, in alphabetical order:

You may notice that typically communities on the east side of the river fared better than communities on the west side. The county statistics bear that out. Peoria County grew by 2,383 residents, or 1.3%, between 2000 and 2009. But Tazewell County grew by 3,981 (3.1%) and Woodford County by 3,393 (9.57%). Combined, Tazewell and Woodford counties grew by 7,374 residents (4.5%), more than three times as much as Peoria county during the same time period.

* Note: In all calculations, I compare actual April 2000 U.S. Census Population Data to recently released June 2009 Population Estimates.

Census 2010, City of Peoria, Peoria County

Census Update 4-23-2010

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At the official Census 2010 website, you can create a map showing the mail participation rate as of the current date. You can see the rate by county, city, all the way down to census tract, and you can compare participation rates. Here’s the status of five cities as of today:

There’s a friendly competition going on between the mayors of Peoria and Springfield to see who will get a higher participation rate. Springfield is winning, but the stakes are pretty low. The losing mayor has to wear the lapel pin of the winning mayor’s city and issue a proclamation congratulating the winning city. Big deal. If they were really serious about this, the loser would have to do something more humiliating, like have his head shaved, or be put in a dunk tank while the winning mayor pulls the lever.

Within Peoria, the participation rates are higher north of McClure, and lower south of McClure. South Peoria has a 55% to 65% response rate. Moss Bradley area: 66%. The Uplands/Arbor District/Bradley University area: 68%. The Rolling Acres area: 83%. Edgewild/Mt. Hawley area: 87%. Overall, as the image above shows, Peoria is currently has a lower response rate than they did in the 2000 Census.

The participation rate for all of Peoria County as of today is 77%, which is higher than the national participation rate of 71%.