The results are in. I received the following press release from the county with supporting documentation. My comments follow:
Description
On February 25, 2008, the County of Peoria conducted a phone survey of approximately 1000 registered voters living in Peoria County: 500 within the City of Peoria, 500 outside city limits. The survey’s intent is to gauge voter support of a tax increase to fund the $24 million requested of the County for the Museum Project.
Survey respondents were selected randomly from a pool of registered voters who voted three times since 2004, including voting in at least one local election. The survey was conducted both during the day and in the evening to poll a broader range of voters. Survey administrators called as many residents as necessary to garner results from approximately 500 households in both the city and in the county; 1009 total surveys were completed.
The survey is attached to this report.
Results
Survey results indicate 31% (30% in the day, 32% in the evening) of residents in the City of Peoria receiving the phone survey did participate in the survey. The survey administrator felt 30% participation is a good response. Compare this to only 17.5% of people in the County: 18% during the day, 17% in the evening. The survey administrator believes the lower percentage of response in the county indicates people in the county are either less aware of the museum or do not care as much about the museum as those living in the City.
Of the total respondents (City and County), 69.4% or 700 felt the museum is beneficial to the region. These respondents then proceeded to the second survey question: “which of three funding sources would you support to aid the Riverfront Museum?” Of the 700, 691 responded to this question. Their responses are as follows:
- Support property tax increase for Peoria County property owners: 4.6% [32]
- Support multi-county property tax increase for region: 21.1% [146]
- Support temporary sales tax increase of .025% in Peoria County: 31.8% [220]
- Undecided or does not support tax increase: 42.4% [293]
The survey administrator felt very positive that less than 50% of the respondents were either undecided or do not support a tax increase. In other words, more than 50% of the polled voters would support a tax increase to help fund the Museum Project.
My take: With all due respect, the survey administrator has made a terrible error. I encourage you to click on the Survey Results link above (last sentence of the press release) and look at the raw numbers; they’re easier to understand and compare than percentages.
I quote Peoria County Director of Strategic Communications Jenny Zinkel from a response she sent to my previous post on this survey: “We believe if a citizen does not feel the museum is beneficial, he or she would not support a tax increase to fund the museum.” So, a “no” response to question 1 means they do not support a tax. Thus, here are the results the way I figure them:
Those who do not support a tax: 602 respondents (309 who answered “no” to question 1, plus 293 who answered “yes” to question 1 and “undecided or no tax” on question 2).
Those who support a tax: 398 respondents (those who answered “yes” to question 1 and chose a tax option in question 2).
For those of you who like percentages, that’s 60.2% against a tax increase, and only 39.8% for a tax increase. I frankly don’t see how the survey administrator could have come to any other conclusion. If they don’t consider “no” votes on question 1 as “no” votes against a tax, then in my opinion, they’ve invalidated the survey because they’ve screened people who, by the County’s own admission, would have most likely voted against a tax increase in question 2.
Kudos to the County for releasing the raw survey data so that the survey administrator’s conclusion could be either verified or challenged. In this case, I think it has to be seriously challenged. It’s clear that there is less than 50% support for a tax increase.
UPDATE: I corrected my numbers from earlier. I failed to take out the 9 people who answered question one positively, but then declined to answer question 2 (presumably by hanging up).
UPDATE 2: Merle Widmer has more information on the continuing efforts of museum officials to force this project down our throats.
since they are going to raise taxes regardless of what people think, the erroneous conclusion that more than 50% support a tax increase will be used as justification. It is more instructive to look at the fact that only 4.6% of those who support the museum are in favor of a property tax increase for Peoria County. I wonder how many of the 21.1% who opted for a “regional” property tax increase did so knowing full well that such a tax has zero chance of being adopted in any other County. It would lose any referendum by huge margins, and any County Board member in Tazewell, Woodford or Fulton County that tried to force it down the people’s throats without referendum would be signing their political death warrant. The proper conclusion here is that, once again, if the politicians decide to fund this museum with tax dollars, it will be against the wishes of a large majority of their constituents. I ask again, will Peorians ever get their fill of this and demand better of their so-called representatives?
I’ll be blogging in the next few days about the proposed museum. I have done a lot of research some of which I have already shared with you. My blogs of 12/03/07, 2/17/08, 1/08/08, 11/02/07 and 1/04/07.
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What else can I say? Perhaps this was inevitable. The thing that bothers me the most? If this project ever makes it, the inability to keep up with costs, lack of attendance, etc is going to cause a terrific backlash one day. The people responsible for this debacle will probably have moved on by then. WHO will be held accountable? The people of Peoria, thats who. Afterall, don’t we always end up holding the bag in the end?
This is precious! NOW I know where Peoria plans to get the money for their museum……….
“Councilman Eric Turner, in pushing Tuesday for the City Council to consider a temporary hiring freeze, said the city may be forced to cut 20 to 30 jobs if economic figures don’t improve and there is a $2 million to $3 million deficit next year.”
I am ashamed I did not think of this. What a clever plan! Now, if we can only close a few more firehouses and lay off 2-3 dozen police officers, we can start construction immediately!
Good analysis, CJ. I would agree they’ve made a pretty significant error in their “spin.” I would caution you that choosing “undecided or no tax” is not necessarily the same as choosing no tax. (Don’t make the same error they are.) I think Jennifer Zinkel’s previous response about not separating out these options for fear of making the survey too long was weak and consequently their survey is fairly useless. A three tiered survey would have been better:
1. Do you support the museum? (yes/no)
2. If yes, would you consider some sort of tax to help offset its cost? (yes/no)
3. If yes, which tax option do you prefer? (1,2,3 or undecided)
That would give you a pretty good read on who supports what. Under the survey as conducted, I would guess that a majority of those who responded so are really “no tax” rather than undecided, and even if that split was 60/40, you don’t really have a majority of respondents in favor of a tax-supported museum. Hopefully the county board will look at the raw results (and your analysis) and draw the right conclusions.
C.J. I’m waiting to see if any reporter at the PJS has the time or energy to actually look at the questions that were asked. The poll was designed to create a result that indicated support for a tax increase. I wonder what Merle Widmer thinks of this?
Sud & Billy — Good points, both of you. Given the way the the poll was worded and the way the results were reported, I don’t think there’s any doubt that the survey was poorly designed at best; deliberately biased at worst. In any event, it’s practically worthless, and a waste of the money spent on it.
Billy says: “The poll was designed to create a result that indicated support for a tax increase.” Really? No. But it looks like the results are deliberately being spun as support of the increase. Those are two different things. Fortunately, since the survey wasn’t designed with that extreme bias (though poorly designed), we get the raw results and sensible people (the Board?) can draw their own conclusions.
Sud: When a poll respondent said he/she did NOT support the museum, they hung up. How is that not a deliberate attempt to skew the results? I stand by my statement.
According to Merle, the ‘Museum’ is gearing up to win over the public….AGAIN! Money spent is one thing, but money not well spent is another. People who oppose the museum oppose it for two basic reasons: 1. NO to a tax increase! 2. the current museum [location, design, content, cost, etc],has been poorly planned from the beginning. I would still argue that Lakeview and the rest of the Museum Group have done a horrendous job at preserving/presenting Peoria’s history and material past. Providing the current Lakeview with a multi-million dollar facility will only make a bad situation worse.
Sud O. Nym,
You wouldn’t happen to be one of those “senible people on the Board” would you? Otherwise, I do not see how you can possibly call this survey anything but skewed, fudged, misleading… you get the picture. Also, what ever respect I might have had for the J Star just went out the window [with my subscription].
I think you guys (Billy, New Voice) are dense. Look, the poll itself wasn’t skewed, the spinning of the results was. This was not a well-designed survey, but at least they told you how many pressed 1 and didn’t have to answer the tax questions. So all of us intelligent people can draw a proper conclusion. They could have just dropped that bit of information and then you really would have had a skewed data set (you never would have known how many respondents said “no” the first time.)
The real shame here is how the lame media have swallowed the bulls$*t line. Even NPR regurgitated the numbers (where is Mr. Ahl when you need him?) The County’s press release (http://www.peoriacounty.org/county/news/show/707) is actually pretty straightforward. So, let’s get off this notion that the survey itself was biased.
Sud,
Did you call me dense?
American Heritage Dictionary
adj.
1. Placed or turned to one side; asymmetrical.
2. Distorted or biased in meaning or effect.
3. Having a part that diverges, as in gearing.
I would say number two hits it dead on. The poll was as you say “not a well-designed survey.” I referred to the poll as skewed, fudged AND misleading. Very poorly designed phone poll + what many people consider to be dubious results at best = skewed.
Mr. Ahl is on vacation in Florida. He needs to stop that.
Just vote NO — County Board — we are overtaxed and there is so such tax as a temporary sales tax increase!
Let’s look at mixed use development just like E. Peoria is proposing on the vacant CAT site. It could lean heavy on residential and leave some room for some specialty retail and restaurants etc. Make it the downtown that Peoria doesn’t have currently. Build in some small streets and give it European feel. I used to be a fan of the museum idea but now I am thinking there is a better use for that two block area.
Does Lakeview now have a budget in the black? Do they have a tenant for another building being left vacant? Will the admission be so high a family of 4 will have to save up to attend once a year? What another waste. InPlay closed, restaurants close downtown. Parking is outrageous whether you have a deck or not, there will be a fee