I’ve been watching the new Bass Pro Shops materialize in East Peoria, and I got to thinking about a statistic I read in the Journal Star when it was announced they were coming to town. The Journal Star reported in May last year that Bass Pro Shops “attract an average of 3 million people a year to each store,” according to East Peoria Mayor Dave Mingus.
I thought it would be interesting to look at these numbers a little closer. For instance, three million visitors annually comes out to roughly 8,219 visitors per day. There are 22,638 residents in East Peoria (2000 census). So if a third of the East Peoria population visited Bass Pro Shops every day, they would get 3,000,000 visits. But this is a regional draw, so I also looked up the Peoria Metropolitan Statistical Area, which has a population of 366,899. If the entire MSA population (which includes all residents of Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford, Marshall, and Stark counties) visited Bass Pro Shops 8 times a year, they’d get 3,000,000 visitors a year.
Six Flags gets about 24 million people a year at their 19 theme parks, which is an average of 1,263,158 people per park — not even half the number of visitors to Bass Pro Shops, although presumably Bass Pro Shops doesn’t charge admission. WalMart, which also doesn’t charge admission, and which people patronize often for their daily needs, brings in about 176 million customers per week to their 8,500 stores; that’s about 1,076,706 people per store annually — just over a third the number that reportedly visit Bass Pro Shops each year.
“In 2008, Illinois welcomed nearly 88 million domestic visitors […] 67.8 million for leisure purposes,” according to the State of Illinois. There are currently two Bass Pro Shops in Illinois, which could account for up to six million — or nearly 10% — of those leisure visitors. The Museum of Science and Industry brings in about two million visitors annually, only two-thirds the draw of Bass Pro Shops. The Field Museum only gets 1.75 million visitors.
My point is that I’m skeptical of this three-million number. First of all, how do we know the reported numbers for existing stores are accurate? Aren’t we just taking the privately-held store’s word for it? Don’t the numbers sound a bit high? Secondly, even if we concede that those numbers are accurate, so what? Just because a store in St. Louis brings in four million customers doesn’t mean that East Peoria, Illinois, is going to have the same success. There are some differences between St. Louis (“Gateway to the West”) and East Peoria (“Gateway to Germantown Hills”) that I believe are self-evident.
Don’t get me wrong. I anticipate that Bass Pro Shops will bring in plenty of customers. I just don’t think it’s going to bring in three million a year. And I’m beginning to see why East Peoria opted to construct the site and building themselves. This puts them ahead of Bakersfield (CA), Decatur (AL), and Augusta (GA). Those cities announced they were getting a new Bass Pro Shops in 2007 and 2008, but are still waiting for private construction to begin. Buffalo (NY) announced they were getting a new Bass Pro Shops in 2004, but the deal fell apart last year after the city got tired of waiting. East Peoria, in contrast, already has a 20-year lease with Bass Pro Shops, which it approved last July.