In a 2008 InterBusiness Issues article, Mayor Jim Ardis announced:
Our growth strategies are working—and they’re paying for themselves too. A special census was recently completed, and the results were better than expected. The city added 1,453 dwelling units and an additional 3,256 citizens in select areas of the city. Combined with the total from our last special census in 2004, the city has added 3,653 additional dwelling units and 8,455 citizens since the 2000 census. That’s great news!
Peoria’s population as of the 2000 Census was 112,936. If we added 8,455 citizens by 2007, as the Mayor stated, then our new population as of 2007 would have been 121,391. But today, I received a press release from the City stating, in part, this:
According to 2010 Census data, the City of Peoria has a population of 115,007, an increase of 1.8 percent over the 112,936 counted during the 2000 Census. Census data are very important in determining the allocation of Federal and State funds to the City of Peoria, proper representation in Voting Districts, and as an important source of strategic planning data. Council Member Ryan Spain said, “After a population decline since 1970, this is a positive sign for the City of Peoria as population has begun trending upward.”
Trending upward? But we had 121,391 in 2007, and now we only have 115,007! Isn’t that trending downward? Which is it? Did the population go up or down?
To answer that question, we need to understand how a special census is conducted. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, “A Special Census is an actual enumeration of housing and group quarters of a specific area, conducted on a specified date. Special Census counts will include new housing and population that came into the area after Census 2000.” In other words, since 2000, Peoria has annexed more land and new subdivisions have been created. The City wanted to get credit for all the (supposedly) new people that had moved into Peoria since the 2000 Census, so they counted just those new areas to see how many people were living in there — a special census, conducted in a selected area on a specific date. In 2007, for example, the “selected areas” of the Special Census count “included the subdivisions of Northtrail Meadows, Rollingbrook, Timberbrook, Prairie Lakes Apartments, Sommer Place, and Chadwick Estates to name a few,” according to a Jan. 30, 2008, press release.
The presumption was that all of these residents were new to Peoria and represented population growth to the City as a whole. In reality, they showed growth in only the area(s) of the City counted. They didn’t show whether there was growth or decline in other areas of the City. Now we know that, while the special census count areas increased in population by 8,455 citizens, the City’s overall growth was only 2,071. This implies that 6,384 citizens — the difference between the 2010 total census increase and the 2004/2007 combined special census increase — merely shifted from one part of Peoria to the special census count areas.
Bottom line: the population did go up 1.8% since 2000, but more significantly, the population shifted to the north. Our growth cells are working, but it unfortunately appears they’re drawing more migrants from other parts of Peoria than new people from outside of Peoria.
In the short run, though, there’s an even bigger concern, and that’s this: the City of Peoria has been receiving state-shared revenue funding based on the 121,391 figure from the 2004/2007 special census additions. Thus, from a revenue-sharing standpoint, our population dropped, and we will be getting less revenue from the State as a result — at a time when we can least afford to lose any money.
“The City of Peoria will hold a news conference on February 18, 2011 at 10:00 a.m., in Room 400 … to discuss the data released by the Census Bureau,” Alma Brown announced today. Despite the hopeful tone of today’s press release, the City is going to have to face some tough questions about population shift and revenue loss at Friday’s press conference.