Here’s what we know for sure: Campustown developer David Joseph already has another tenant lined up to replace Save-a-Lot, and it’s not a grocery store. Other than that, no one will comment for the record. So the question on everyone’s mind is, “who will the new tenant be?”

Over on Billy’s blog, one commenter suggests it will be an Ashley Furniture store. But in WEEK-TV’s news coverage, the manager of the Save-a-Lot tells a different story:

The Save-A-Lot store manager says the building won’t be empty for long, and he is hearing that it could be replaced with a Bradley bookstore.

I have heard Bradley rumored as a possible tenant from several sources — although they don’t all agree on what exactly Bradley will do with it. Possible uses run the gamut from a bookstore, as WEEK suggests, to offices, to an education center. I wrote to Bradley’s public relations rep — former Journal Star editor Shelley Epstein — but my inquiries have not been answered. Read into that what you will he’s out of town and unable to answer me until he gets back Sunday or Monday.

If the rumors are true and Bradley is going to be Campustown’s largest tenant, is that good or bad for the West Bluff? Let’s weigh the pros and cons.

Pros

• Bradley would be a stabilizing presence in Campustown. Presumably, security would be increased, which will make the area safer.
• Since Bradley isn’t buying the space, but rather leasing it, the city will continue to collect property tax revenue. And since the Campustown TIF ended this year, the property taxes will go back to the local governments again, and the city’s portion will go into the general fund.
• More students and/or employees of Bradley going to school and/or working at Campustown may increase business for the remaining retail stores and restaurants.

Cons

• The city will lose sales tax revenue. If the store is converted to an office or education center, no sales tax revenue at all will be collected. If it’s converted to a new Bradley bookstore, the old bookstore would likely close, so there would be a net loss in commercial square footage, which translates to a net loss in sales tax revenue.
• A quality commercial anchor would better serve the West Bluff. As Campustown was originally conceived, a grocery store was supposed to provide basic infrastructure to the West Bluff that would be convenient for residents and an attractive amenity for people considering a move into the neighborhood. Thompson’s/Sullivan’s were excellent tenants toward furthering that vision, but Save-a-Lot (being a low-end grocer) sent a different message. While acknowledging that Save-a-Lot was a poor choice for a commercial anchor, the way to improve Campustown would be to bring in a better grocer, not convert retail space to institutional.

From the city’s standpoint, there’s no question that the cons outweigh the pros. They’re going to lose money. Sales tax is the city’s bread and butter. In an effort to keep property taxes low, the city has been piling up sales taxes and fees to cover the rising costs of public works, public safety, and developer incentives.

It’s not as if the city couldn’t absorb the loss of Save-a-Lot’s tax revenue by itself. But this isn’t an isolated incident. There seems to be somewhat of a trend in retail outlets and residential properties being taken over by non-tax-producing entities. For example, the old K’s Merchandise was taken over by OSF. The old Damon’s restaurant in Riverfront Village was taken over by Heartland Partnership. The old Leath Furniture was converted to a church. And huge swaths of land and houses that used to be on the property tax rolls have been taken over by District 150 for various building projects — or, in the case of the Prospect road properties, expensive blunders. In the case of District 150, taxpayers get hit with a double-whammy: we have to pay millions to acquire the properties, plus we lose the revenue they produced. The city can’t sustain such a trend without compensating growth.

From a neighborhood standpoint, the problem with Campustown has always been crime. The place has a reputation for being unsafe, and until that changes, you’ll have a hard time getting tenants to locate there and you’ll have a hard time getting patrons for those tenants. If Bradley’s presence were to reduce crime in Campustown, I think most residents would see it as a net gain for the West Bluff. Conversely, if Save-a-Lot is gone (and, despite its faults, the store was serving the needs of some lower-income West Bluff residents) and there is no increase in safety in return, that will certainly be a net loss for the area.