Poll results and the future of polls

According to the Journal Star’s midday update, the latest poll numbers for governor are as follows:

  • Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) — 44%
  • Judy Barr Topinka (R) — 40%
  • Rich Whitney (G) — 7%
  • Undecided — 9%

The margin of error for this poll (provided by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research) is ±4%, so the front runners are in a “statistical dead heat.”

I got to thinking about these polls…. Peoria County Clerk JoAnn Thomas has stated that 1,500 people have already voted in the county (not including the city) — that’s roughly 3% of the total registered voters in the county (approx. 50,000). If that’s the trend statewide, that’s a significant percentage. In contrast, Mason-Dixon polled 625 “likely voters” out of 7.3 million registered voters in Illinois.

So, the question is, how long do you think it will be before we start seeing polls of early voters instead of likely voters? If there are enough early voters to make the sample statistically diverse enough, couldn’t you just see pollsters calling an election before election day even arrives? I think it’s just a matter of time.

10 thoughts on “Poll results and the future of polls”

  1. Hmmm, I saw a poll – probably from the Chicago Tribune, that has Rich Whitney polling at 14%.
    I’m thinking Rich Whitney is going to show stronger than any poll. With an outside chance of winning – but that’s IMHO.

  2. Honestly, I don’t think Whitney has a chance of winning, but that won’t stop him from getting my vote. I only wish I could convince my SO to get out of the ‘a third-party vote is a wasted vote’ mentality…

  3. Oh my GOD! Where’s Randy Stufflebeam’s name on that list? Oh Lordy Lordy… well, thank goodness we have the brilliance of Rich Whitney on that ballot… HE will allow us to become the Wild West again even though we never WERE the Wild West…

    Pistol packin’, rootin’ tootin’, horse riding… just gonna have to find that Lt. Governor who’s out of state somewheres once the election is over. Hell yeah… maybe we can get Stufflebeam in there as Lt. Governor… that way, we can have a pistol packin’, straight shootin’, right wingin’, humdinger type as the second in command… sort of.

    Just when I thought the election couldn’t fall below the level of Rod and Topinka, along comes Sheriff Whitney and the Preacher Stufflebeam, and they is gonna sets us straight. Thank the Good Lawd that’s we gots them good followers on them internet sites to get our Apaloosas a ‘hoofin’ straight again.

    Sheeeeeeeeee-dang… Ruger at my side… Bible in my hand… this here Illinois is gonna be high-flyin’ quicker than you can say “La-La Land”!

  4. I don’t really even understand the point Prego is trying to make, aside from offending cowboys, Southerners, Christians, African Americans and Whitney or Stufflebeam supporters. Anyone have some smelling salts for him?

  5. True C.J.- That Prego guy..is one silly little unbalanced little feller. He is probably voting for cleaner straightjackets, and daily diaper changing.

  6. I almost fell out of my high chair, laughing so hard at the amazing humor of Hooligan…

    Shazam!

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