From a press release:

(PEORIA) With just over two months to go in the race, a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Virginia on August 18-20th shows Aaron Schock leading Colleen Callahan by a more than two-to-one margin with Green Party nominee Sheldon Schafer getting 2% of the vote.

The 400 sample size poll conducted throughout the 18th Congressional District shows Schock with a commanding lead throughout the district. The head to head match up showed Schock with 56% of the vote to Callahan’s 27% and Schafer’s 2%, with 13% undecided.

The question was simply worded, “If the election to U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote.. .Colleen Callahan, Democrat; Sheldon Schafer, Green Party or Aaron Schock, Republican? The three names were rotated in order as the question was asked of voters.

The Schock campaign released two polls it had commissioned by Public Opinion Strategies in the primary race and both showed Schock with substantial leads. His final vote totals were even higher however, earning 72% of the vote.

“Public Opinion Strategies is one of the most respected and accurate polling firms in the nation,” said Schock campaign manager Steven Shearer. “Some people questioned the validity of the polls we released in the primary campaign and even scoffed that Aaron’s numbers couldn’t possibly be that high, but Aaron’s margin of the vote confirmed those poll findings.”

“Without question the only poll that counts is on Election Day,” Shearer continued. “That is why Aaron Schock is working exceptionally hard to earn new support each and every day, just as he has done in each campaign.”

A memo of the results of the poll has been prepared by Public Opinion Strategies and follows this page, and is being publicly released to the media.

Click on this link to see the full press release with the results memo.

Monday’s Word on the Street column mentioned that Aaron Schock got the endorsement of the Sangamon County GOP. Do you know why he got the nomination of the Sangamon County GOP? According to State Journal-Register reporter Bernard Schoenburg, a big reason is simply because he’s the perceived front-runner:

“I guess one of the things you have to take into account is that all of the polls that we have looked at and studied indicate that he … is in the lead and will probably win the nomination,” [Sangamon County GOP leader Tony] Libri said.

“It was a tough decision, because I’ve got to tell you, I like the other two candidates very much.”

I wonder what polls they looked at — Schock’s own poll numbers that he released, or an independent poll. I’m not aware of any independent polls having been conducted in this primary contest. Did Sangamon County conduct their own poll? I think mere front-runner status is a dubious criterion for endorsement.

It’s worth noting that the endorsement isn’t especially strong, either. They like the other two candidates just as well, apparently:

He also noted that, similar to the presidential endorsement, he’s not insisting that all loyal party members toe the party line in the race for the 18th … “If one of our precinct committeemen or if some of our members feel strongly about this and want to go with somebody else, we will honor that,” Libri said.

Good. I’m glad to know I have the Sangamon County GOP’s blessing to vote against Schock if I wish.

Remember that speech that Aaron Schock gave when he announced he was running for the 18th Congressional District seat? I bet you didn’t know that part of it was a comedy act:

A statement to possibly sell nuclear arms to Taiwan was meant “more in jest” rather than as an actual proposal, congressional candidate Aaron Schock is now saying.

I see. So now it wasn’t a “deeply thought-out policy,” like Schock’s campaign manager Steve Shearer said when the story initially broke. Shearer told State Journal-Register reporter Bernard Schoenburg that Schock “’has studied that issue and was reading from different foreign policy magazines’ as he developed his stand on the issue.” I imagine those foreign policy magazines were filled with nuclear proliferation jokes — they’re the bomb, you know.

It’s quite entertaining to hear how Schock’s story keeps changing as time goes on. I expect to pick up the paper next week and read that Schock is saying, “Nukes? Naw, I never said anything about giving Taiwan nukes. I said that if China didn’t cooperate with us against Iran, I was going to give Hu Jintao a noogie. Get it right guys.”

The State Journal-Register has published a cartoon about Aaron Schock that, judging from recent reporting in the Journal Star, we’ll never see in Peoria. You can check it out here.

Hat tip: Billy Dennis.

The Gatehouse News Service report said, “Schock didn’t back down” from criticism of his proposal to sell nuclear arms to Taiwan. I beg to differ:

“If China continues to be irresponsible about nuclear proliferation in Iran, we should tell them that if they do not care about proliferation–and since they are enablers of it in Iran, that if they don’t change their position, we will sell Pershing nuclear missiles to Taiwan for their defense.” (Schock’s candidacy announcement speech, 10/28/07, emphasis added)

“I do not want to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan, I want China’s cooperation in dealing with Iran.” (Schock’s press release, 11/8/07, emphasis added)

This is what pundits like to call a “flip-flop” on the issues. Despite all the other rhetoric in the latest press release, Schock nevertheless reversed himself on the selling of nuclear arms. If he had said in his original speech that he simply “want[ed] China’s cooperation in dealing with Iran,” then we wouldn’t be having all this controversy. No one would have even batted an eye.

The press release was nothing more than spin, and Gatehouse apparently bought it.